Tan iyo bartamihiiBishii Disembar, waxaa jiray sare u kac weyn oo ku yimid qiimaha aluminiumka, iyadoo aluminium Shanghai uu dib ugu soo laabtay ku dhawaad 8.6% hoos u dhaca 18,190 yuan/ton, iyo
Aluminiumka LME oo kor uga kacaya 2,109 US dollars/ton ilaa 2,400 US dollars/ton.Dhinac, tani waxay sabab u tahay dareenka ganacsi ee suuqa oo rajo leh
oo ku saabsan heerka ribada ee kaydka federaalka ee Maraykanka ayaa dhimay rajada laga filayo, dhanka kale, waxaa jiray sare u kac weyn sababtoo ah kor u kaca dhinaca kharashka ee dhimista wax soo saarka alumina oo ay u sii dheer tahay dhibaatada Badda Cas.Kor u kaca aluminium ee Shanghai ayaa jabiyay isbeddelka
kala duwan oo la sameeyay in ka badan hal sano, oo leh aluminium LME oo muujinaya daciifnimo dheeraad ah marka la barbardhigo.Toddobaadkii hore, sida qaar ka mid ah soosaarayaasha aluminiumka ayaa dib u bilaabay
wax soo saarka, fududaynta welwelka saadka, alumina iyo aluminium qiimaha labadaba waxay la kulmeen dib u dhac yar.
1. Bauxite ore-Gaab yaraanta Soo saarista Alumina weli way xaddidi doontaa sii-deynta Awoodda Wax-soo-saarka
Marka la eego macdanta bauxite ee gudaha, heerka hawlgalka miinada ayaa si dabiici ah u hooseeya jiilaalka.Shil miinada oo ka dhacay Shanxi dhamaadkii sanadkii hore ayaa sababay in miinooyin badan oo deegaanka ah ay hakadaan
wax soo saarka kormeerka iyo dayactirka, iyada oo aan rajo laga qabin dib u bilaabista muddada gaaban.Macdanta Sanmenxia ee ku taal Henan sidoo kale ma soo sheegin dib u bilaabasho, iyadoo
hoos u dhac ku yimid wax soo saarka macdanta ee Pingdingshan.Waxaa jira miinooyin cusub oo yar oo laga furay Guizhou, iyo sahayda macdanta bauxite ayaa la filayaa inay sii ahaato mid adag muddo dheer, taas oo si xoogan u taageeri doonta qiimaha alumina.Marka laga hadlayo macdanta dibadda laga keeno, saamaynta
Shidaal yaraanta ka dhalatay qarixii keydka saliidda ee Guinea ayaa sii socda, inta badan waxay ka muuqataa kororka qiimaha shidaalka ee shirkadaha macdanta iyo kor u kaca qiimaha xamuulka badda.
Hadda, waa xilliga ugu sarreeya ee shixnadaha macdanta Guinea.Sida laga soo xigtay SMM, shixnadaha alumina ee todobaadkii hore laga keenay Guinea ayaa gaadhay 2.2555 milyan oo tan.
koror 392,900 oo tan ah todobaadkii hore 1.8626 milyan oo tan.Xaaladda kacsan ee Badda Cas ayaa saameyn kooban ku yeelatay gaadiidka aluminiumka ah,
iyadoo ku dhawaad boqolkiiba todobaatan macdanta alumina ee Shiinaha laga keeno Guinea, shixnadaha ka yimaada Guinea iyo Australia aanay soo dhaafin badda cas.
Saamaynta ayaa laga yaabaa in laga dareemo qayb yar oo ka mid ah gaadiidka aluminium ee ka yimaada Turkiga.
aluminium profileSababo la xiriira yaraanta sahayda macdanta aluminiumka iyo xannibaadaha wax soo saarka deegaanka, waxaa jiray hoos u dhac weyn oo ku yimid awoodda wax-soo-saarka alumina goor hore.Sida laga soo xigtay Aladdin, Jimcihii la soo dhaafay, awoodda hawlgalka ee alumina waxay ahayd 81.35 milyan oo tan, iyada oo heerka hawlgalka ee 78.7%, si muuqata uu uga hooseeya heerka caadiga ah ee 84-87 milyan oo tan qeybtii labaad ee sanadka.Qiimaha dhibcaha alumina ayaa kor u kacay oo ay la socdaan qiimaha mustaqbalka.Jimcihii la soo dhaafay, qiimaha goobta ee gobolka Henan wuxuu ahaa 3,320 yuan/ton, ilaa 190 yuan/ton todobaadkii hore.Sicirka goobta ee gobolka Shanxi wuxuu kordhay 180 yuan ilaa 3,330 yuan/ton marka la barbar dhigo usbuucii hore.Toddobaadkii hore, iyada oo tayada hawada sare loo qaaday qaybo ka mid ah Shandong iyo Henan iyo kor u qaadista digniinaha hawada wasakhaysan ee culus, dhowr shirkadood oo aluminium ah ayaa dib u bilaabay wax soo saarkooda, kuwaas oo qaar badan oo ka mid ah ay yihiin noocyo diyaar u ah in la keeno.Shirkad weyn oo ku taal gobolka Shanxi oo hoos u dhigtay awoodeeda wax-soo-saarka dhibaatooyinka calcination ayaa sidoo kale dib u bilaabaya wax-soo-saarka, iyadoo ay weheliso shirkado kale, taas oo soo jeedinaysa in xaaladda ciriiriga ah ee alaabta aluminiumka ah ee muddada gaaban ay fiicnaan karto.Si kastaba ha ahaatee, dhibaatada sahayda macdanta ku filan ayaa la filayaa inay sii wado bixinta taageerada qiimaha aluminiumka muddada dhexe.
2. Kordhinta Qiimaha iyo Faa'iidada Aluminium Electrolysis
Marka la eego kharashyada korantada aluminiumka, marka laga reebo sare u kaca weyn ee qiimaha aluminiumka, qiimaha korontada iyo soodhaha soodhaha ayaa weli ah kuwo deggan.Bilowgii bisha, shirkad caan ah oo gudaha ah ayaa si weyn hoos ugu dhigtay qiimaha dalabka aluminium fluoride, taas oo keentay hoos u dhaca qiimaha wax kala iibsiga ee suuqa fluoride aluminium.Guud ahaan, SMM waxa ay ku qiyaastay in bilawgii Jannaayo, wadarta qiimaha korantada aluminiumku gaadhay ilaa 16,600 yuan halkii ton, ilaa 320 yuan halkii ton oo ka yimid ku dhawaad 16,280 yuan per ton badhtamihii bishii December ee sanadkii hore.Iyada oo kor u kaca qiimaha aluminiumka elektiroonigga ah, faa'iidooyinka shirkadaha aluminiumka elektiroonigga ah ayaa sidoo kale arkay koror gaar ah.
3. Wax yar oo hoos u dhac ku yimid wax soo saarka Aluminium Electrolysis iyo Heerarka Alaabada Hoose
Sida laga soo xigtay Xafiiska Tirakoobka Qaranka, laga bilaabo Jannaayo ilaa Noofambar 2023, wax-soo-saarka Shiinaha ee aluminium elektrolytka ah wuxuu ahaa 38 milyan oo tan, koror sannad-sannad ah 3.9%.Wax-soo-saarkii bishii Nofembar ayaa waxyar hoos ugu dhacay 3.544 milyan oo tan, taasoo ay ugu wacan tahay koronto xaddidan ee gobolka Yunnan.Sida laga soo xigtay Mysteel, laga bilaabo dhammaadka Noofambar, awoodda aluminium ee Shiinaha ee la dhisay waxay ahayd 45.0385 milyan tan, iyada oo awoodda hawlgalka ee 42.0975 milyan tan iyo heerka isticmaalka awoodda ee 93.47%, hoos u dhac 2.62% bishiiba.Bishii Nofembar, soo dejinta Shiinaha ee aluminium cayriin waxay ahayd 194,000 tan, wax yar ka yar bishii Oktoobar, laakiin wali waxay ku taal heer aad u sarreeya.
Laga bilaabo Janaayo 5, alaabada aluminiumka ee Isweydaarsiga Mustaqbalka ee Shanghai wuxuu ahaa 96,637 tan, isagoo sii wada hoos u dhaca oo ku haray heer hoose marka loo eego isla muddadaas sanadihii hore.Mugga dammaanadda wuxuu ahaa 38,917 tan, isagoo siinaya taageero gaar ah qiimaha mustaqbalka.Laga bilaabo Janaayo 4, Mysteel ayaa sheegay in liiska bulshada ee aluminium electrolytic uu ahaa 446,000 tan, 11.3 kun oo tan oo ka hooseeya isla muddadaas sannadkii hore, taas oo muujinaysa in wareegga guud ee wareegga gudaha uu weli yahay mid adag.Marka la eego hawlgallada hoose ee daciifka ah ee ka hor dabbaaldegga gu'ga iyo hoos u dhaca la filayo ee heerka beddelka biyaha aluminium ee shirkadaha aluminiumka elektaroonigga ah, agabka aluminiumku wuxuu dardargelin karaa qaybta labaad ee Janaayo.Janaayo 5, alaabada aluminium ee LME waxay istaagtay 558,200 tan, wax yar ayaa laga soo qaaday bartamihii Disembar hooseeya, laakiin wali waxay ku jirtaa heer hoose oo guud, wax yar ka sarreeya isla muddadaas sannadkii hore.Mugga rasiidhada bakhaarrada ee diwaan gashanaa waxay ahayd 374,300 tan, oo leh xawli soo kabasho degdeg ah.Qandaraaska booska aluminium ee LME wuxuu arkay kontango yar, taasoo muujineysa in sahayda barta aysan muujin ciriiri weyn.
4. Isbeddelka Dalabka daciifka ah ka hor sanadka cusub ee Shiinaha
Marka loo eego SMM, ka dib maalinta sanadka cusub, agabka billet aluminiumku waxa uu galay xawli kaydin ah.Laga bilaabo Janaayo 4-teedii, agabka bulshada ee ulaha aluminiumka gudaha ayaa gaaray 82,000 tan, koror 17,900 oo tan ah marka loo eego Khamiistii hore.Imaatinka badeecadaha inta lagu jiro fasaxyada, daciifinta hawlaha hoose ee ka hor sanadka cusub ee Shiinaha, iyo heerka sare ee qiimaha aluminium ee xakameynaya iibsashada hoose, ayaa ahaa sababaha ugu muhiimsan ee kobaca alaabada.Toddobaadkii ugu horreeyay ee 2024, heerka hawlgalka ee hormuudka ka ah ganacsiyada aluminium aluminium ee gudaha ayaa sii waday inuu daciifo, 52.7%, iyada oo toddobaad kasta hoos u dhac ku yimid 2.1%.Qaar ka mid ah heerarka wax soo saarka astaanta dhismaha iyo amarada ayaa hoos u dhacay, halka hoggaanka ganacsiga astaanta baabuurta ay ku sii jireen heerar shaqo oo sarreeya.Suuqa muuqaalka sawir-qaadista ayaa la kulmay tartan la xoojiyey, iyo tirada dalabka ayaa sidoo kale hoos u dhacay.Marka la eego dhinaca dhamaadka, hoos u dhaca wadar ahaan sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya ee dhismaha cusub iyo goobta dhismaha bilihii 1aad ilaa 11aad ayaa muujiyay horumar aad u yar, laakiin xaalada iibka ee heerka macaamiisha ee dhamaadka ayaa ahaa mid daciif ah.Bishii Nofembar 2023, wax-soo-saarka baabuurta iyo iibka Shiinaha ayaa dhammaystiray 3.093 milyan iyo 2.97 milyan unug, siday u kala horreeyaan, iyadoo la diiwaangeliyey koror sannad-sannad ah 29.4% iyo 27.4%, taasoo muujinaysa heerka kobaca degdegga ah.
5. Jawi-dhaqaale-dhaqaale ee debedda oo khafiif ah
Kaydka federaalku wuxuu ilaaliyay heerka dulsaarka bartilmaameedka oo aan isbeddelin intii lagu jiray shirkii Disembar, iyadoo Powell uu sii daayay calaamadaha dovish, isagoo sheegay in Kaydka Federaalka uu tixgelinayo oo uu ka hadlayo dhimista heerka dulsaarka ku habboon, iyo suurtagalnimada dhimista sicirka ayaa la tixgeliyey.Maaddaama rajada laga qabo dhimista sicirku ay xoojiso, dareenka suuqa ayaa weli ah mid rajo leh, mana jiraan arrimo dhaqaale oo weyn oo taban oo la filayo muddada gaaban.Tusmada doollarka Mareykanka ayaa dib uga noqday 101, iyo wax-soo-saarka curaarta Mareykanka ayaa sidoo kale hoos u dhacay.Qodobbada ka soo baxay shirkii Diseembar ee la daabacay ka dib ma ahayn kuwo aad u jilicsan sida dareenka shirkii hore, iyo xogta wanaagsan ee shaqaalaynta ee aan beeraha ahayn ee December ayaa sidoo kale taageeray fikradda ah in siyaasadda lacagta xaddidan ay sii socon doonto muddo dheer.Si kastaba ha ahaatee, tani kama horjoogsanayso rajada aasaasiga ah ee saddexda dhimis ee 2024. Kahor Sannadka Cusub ee Shiinaha, hoos u dhac lama filaan ah oo ku yimid muuqaalka dhaqaalaha sare uma badna inuu dhaco.Wax soo saarka Shiinaha ee PMI bishii Disembar ayaa hoos u dhacay 0.4% ilaa 49%, taas oo muujinaysa hoos u dhac ku yimid tilmaamayaasha wax soo saarka iyo baahida.Waxaa ka mid ah, tusmada amarada cusub ayaa hoos u dhacay 0.7% ilaa 48.7%, taasoo ka tarjumaysa in aasaaska soo kabashada dhaqaalaha gudaha uu weli u baahan yahay in la xoojiyo.
Waqtiga boostada: Jan-22-2024